Per the CRISIL analysis, the first advance estimates bake in a slowdown in the second half relative to the first half of this fiscal. The latter half slowdown has been driven by weaker private consumption, especially rural demand, and the bite of rising interest rates.

While India’s real GDP growth in 2023-24 is estimated to 7.3 per cent, in comparison to 7.2 per cent a year ago, according to the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), CRISIL expects the pace of India’s economic growth in the next fiscal to slow down as high interest rates and slowing global growth bite.

Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL Ltd, said, “Growth estimates for this fiscal have surpassed our expectations. High frequency indicators such as the S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index show activity remaining in the expansion zone in the third quarter for both manufacturing and services. Even as the agricultural economy slowed sharply this year following a weak monsoon, the surge in the non-agricultural economy has more than offset it.” Weak agri growth (1.8 per cent vs 4.0 per cent previous fiscal) was seen as the result of poor kharif output and onging risks to rabi crops. Kharif output — impacted by the uneven monsoon — is estimated to be 4.6 per cent lower on-year. Rabi sowing has also slowed as per latest data available, as water reservoir levels are lower on-year.

He further stated that the government-driven investment push, along with easing input cost pressures for industry, has also played a major role in shoring up growth. However, services have been slowing with waning pent-up demand (post pandemic). The exception has been financial, real estate and professional services, which has powered ahead on the back of robust growth in banking and real estate.

Nevertheless, per the CRISIL analysis, the first advance estimates bake in a slowdown in the second half relative to the first half of this fiscal. The latter half slowdown has been driven by weaker private consumption, especially rural demand, and the bite of rising interest rates. 

The slowdown is expected to continue in the next fiscal. But why?

First and foremost is the slowing global growth will have an impact on India’s economic growth the next year. S&P Global expects global growth to slow to 2.8 per cent in calendar year 2024 from 3.3 per cent previous year. The United States (US), which beat expectations last year, is expected to slow to 1.5 per cent (vs 2.4 per cent), as monetary policy transmission picks up. The slowing growth in the US will weigh on India’s growth, with the country being the largest export market for India.

Next, the rising interest rates will also have an impact on growth. Financial conditions, CRISIL said, are expected to be less supportive for domestic demand next year. The transmission of past rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India is still in playing out, which suggests a further rise in lending rates. The central bank’s recent regulatory measures of increasing risk weights on consumer credit exposures of banks and NBFCs will further affect credit growth into next year. 

According to the NSO data, nominal GDP is estimated to slow to 8.9 per cent this fiscal compared with 16.1 per cent previous year. This is lower than 10.5 per cent estimated during Budget 2023. Moderation in real GDP growth, coupled with a sharp slide in GDP deflator (1.4 per cent on-year this fiscal versus 8.2 per cent previous year) are behind the slowdown in nominal GDP. WPI inflation has declined significantly this fiscal (-1.3 per cent in April-November 2023), which drove the fall in GDP deflator.

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  According  to  a  Times of India report citing data  from  the  Confederation of  Indian  Alcoholic Beverages Companies  (CIABC), India’s single malt sales have surpassed those of global brands by 2023. 

 Of the total sales of  675,000  cases of single  malt  in India in 2023, around  345,000 cases  were retailed by domestic  producers,  while the remaining  330,000 cases  were  retailed  by  Scots  and  other countries.  

 Some of  India’s largest single malt  brands  include  Amrut, Paul John,  Indri  and  Gianchand,  among  many  others.  Local  brands  don’t come  cheap: Indri starts at $37 a bottle  (about  ₹3,000), Amrut $42  (about ₹3,500)  and Rampur $66  (about  ₹5,400)  at stores  near New Delhi.  By  comparison, Pernod’s Glenlivet retails from $40  (about  ₹3,200) to $118  (about $9,800),  depending on age.

 South Seas  launches  premium single malt  product line

 Unlike many Asian countries where beer dominates alcohol sales, India is  primarily  a  whiskey drinking  nation.

  Responding  to the  Indian drinks  trend, global brands that have  focused  on  old Scottish  single malts  are  turning  to Indian  whiskey  to  capitalize on  the boom in one of the  major whiskey markets best of the world.  

  India  loves whiskey  among  the  top 10  countries  

 Established global brands such as Glenlivet, made by France’s Pernod Ricard, and Talisker by Britain’s  Diageo, are competing  for shelf space with local rivals Indri,  Amrut  and Radico Khaitan’s Rampur. The craze for  “desi”  brands has prompted Diageo and Pernod  Ricard  to join local brands.  

 Whyte & Mackay single malt  whiskey  finds  a  key  market  in India 

 In 2022, Diageo, Pernod’s  biggest rival,  launched  India’s  first  single malt, Godawan  –  named after  an  endangered  large  Indian bird  – which is currently on sale.  in five foreign markets, including the United States. While Pernod launched Longitude 77 last year. 

  Diageo India launches  Godawan  craft whiskey  

  According to CIABC data, local  single malts  account for  53% of total sales  by 2023.  

  According to data from drinks market analysis IWSR,  Indian single  malt grew  144% in  2021-2022, outpacing Scotch’s  32%  growth. He predicts that, over  the period  to  2027,  India’s malt  consumption  will  grow 13%  per year,  compared  with 8% for scotch.

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  Maldives  Tourism Industry  Association  (MATI) has  supported  India and  “strongly condemned”  the  ministers’  derogatory remarks  on  Prime Minister  Modi’s  message  on Lakshadweep. A  major controversy broke out  last week  when the Deputy Chief Minister of  Maldives  along with other cabinet members and government  officials  made  derogatory  and  unreliable  references  about Prime Minister Modi’s visit  to  Lakshadweep.  

 Here are 10  things  you need to know 

 1. “The Maldives  Tourism Industry  Association  (MATI) strongly condemns the  offensive  comments made by some Deputy Ministers on social media platforms,  against  the Prime Minister of India,  Mr.  Narendra  Modi,  as well as the  Indian  people  Degree,”  the official  said. speak. » said the press release published  on  January  8.  

 2. Calling India  one of  its closest allies, MATI  said:  “India is one of our closest  neighbors  and allies. India has always been a first responder to various crises throughout  its  history and we are  extremely  grateful  for  the close relationship that the  government and  people of India have  had  with  us.  

 3.  “India is  also  a consistent and significant contributor to the  Maldives tourism industry. One  contributor  contributed  greatly  to  our recovery efforts during  the COVID-19 pandemic, shortly  after  our  borders reopened.  Since then, India  continues  to  be  one of the  major  markets  of  the Maldives.  We sincerely hope  that the close relationship between our two  countries will continue  for  many  generations to come and  we  will therefore  refrain from  any  actions or  words  that may have  a  negative impact on  the relationship  our  good,”  the  MATI  statement  said.  

 4. On January 2,  Prime Minister  Modi visited the Union Territory and shared  a few  pictures, including an  “exciting experience” where he tried  his hand at  snorkeling.  

 5. In a series of posts  out there,  Lakshadweep  must  be on your  list.  

 6. In a  now-deleted post, Maldives  Deputy Minister of Youth  Empowerment Shiuna  made a mocking and disrespectful  remark towards Prime Minister  Modi. 

 7. Zahid Rameez,  a member of the Progressive Party  in the  Maldives  Senate,  reportedly  criticized  India, saying  “the idea  of  ​​competing  with us is  unrealistic”.  He said his  “sentiments are  expressed in the context of growing Indian influence  in”  Maldives political affairs. Abdulla Mahzoom Majid said he wished  India tourism a  success  but added that  “explicitly targeting  the Maldives  is not diplomatic”.  

 8. According to Maldivian  media, Deputy Ministers of Youth,  Malsha Shareef, Mariyam Shiuna and Abdulla Mahzoom  Majid,  have been suspended  due to  their  duties.  Earlier on Sunday, the  Maldives  government also distanced itself from Minister Mariyam Shiuna’s derogatory remarks, saying her  views do  not reflect  those of  the  government.  

 9. Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu  comes to China  to strengthen bilateral  relations  with Beijing. Muizzu, who is  considered “pro-China”,  skipped  his  visit to India and  went to  China, unlike his predecessors. On Monday,  Chinese  state media Global Times, in an editorial, mentioned Muizzu’s visit to the East Asian  country  and referred to  the  diplomatic  dispute between India and  Maldives, and called for  calls for  an  “open”  approach  in considering  South Asian issues.

  10.  Maldives MP  Mickail  Naseem  called on the  National Assembly  to summon the  Foreign Minister over  the  Maldivian government’s  inaction and lack of  urgency.  Former Maldives  Defense  Minister Mariya Ahmed Didi also said that  insulting  comments  about Prime Minister  Modi  showed  the  “myopia”  of the Maldives government, adding that India  is  a reliable ally, providing  support. aid  in  many  sectors, including  defence, while criticizing  any  efforts  to  weaken  the  Maldivian government. long-term  relationship. 

  Meanwhile,  Maldives is India’s  main  maritime  neighbor  in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and  has  a special place in its initiatives  such as SAGAR  (Security and Growth for  All).  in the Region) and the  Modi government’s Neighborhood  First  Policy. In particular, thousands  of Indians  have visited the  Maldives in  recent  years. Indians top Maldives’ tourist arrival figures, with more than 2 lakh of them visiting it every year after the COVID-19 pandemic, news agency PTI reported. Traders’ body Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) called upon domestic traders and exporters to refrain from conducting business dealings with the island nation, PTI reported. EaseMyTrip also suspended all flight bookings to the island nation on its website “in solidarity” with India. 

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 Anirudh Garg, Partner and Fund Manager at INVAsset, PMS, believes  that  Budget 2024  may  not bring  significant  changes  to  the stock market and investors, but any  significant announcement  will  recorded  and considered for  its  potential impact. In an interview with Mint, Garg said  this year’s  market  drivers appear  to be  mainly focused on  political events and economic  policy.  Edited  excerpt:  

 What are your expectations  for  the  2024 budget? Will  it  be a pro-growth or  populist budget ahead of the  2024 general election? Which  budget announcements  will  be important from  a market perspective? Expectations  for the  2024  budget appear  to  hinge on  the belief that it  will not have a significant impact given  its proximity to  an  election year.  

 Instead, the focus is on  analysis of  the  February  2023 budget,  which  prioritizes  capital expenditure (capex) over popular measures  aimed at attracting  voters.  

 Last year’s  budget  allocated  19.5%  of  spending to capital expenditure,  the highest in two decades,  demonstrating  the government’s long-term planning approach. 

  This strategy is  considered  crucial  to  a  country’s  prosperity, as capital investments  generate returns over longer periods of time, unlike short-term, immediate  benefits  from revenue  spending.  

 The argument  goes  that investing in long-term assets,  just  like a family  invests  in a business for future income, is  essential  for a developing  country  like India.  The government’s clear focus on  improving  infrastructure and sectors  such as  roads, railways,  defense  and airports  are  seen as vital  to  India’s growth from  two trillion to  ten  trillion dollars.  

 While the current budget  may  not bring  significant  changes  to  the stock market and investors, any important announcements will still be noted and considered  based on  their potential impact. 

  Most  of  the  active products have been marketed.  What  is  the next  trigger  for the market?  Market  triggers  this year  appear  to be  mainly focused on  political events and economic  policy. First,  the  2024  general elections  and the  current government’s  expected victories  in key Indian states  will  be  priced in  the market.  

 However, the actual  result,  especially the majority  that the  BJP  can  secure  victory,  is  still  expected  to  matter to markets.  

 Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s stance on inflation and interest rates is  considered  a  deciding factor.  

 If the Fed continues to manage inflation effectively, interest rate adjustments may not  have a major  impact  on  the  market.  Conversely, any change in this  position can act  as a trigger.  The US  election scheduled for  later  this  year  is  also expected to  play an important role.

  As  the  political  landscape evolves, the political  changes and economic directives that  accompany a  new  administration  can  cause  market volatility. 

  The advice  emphasizes the  understanding that markets are forward-looking and tend to price in  response to  anticipated outcomes rather than  reacting  to current events.

  Therefore,  the market may  perform better in anticipation of a positive  event  and  may react  less  when that  event occurs. 

  Investors are  advised not to be  swayed by market  price increases  following positive developments and  should  focus on opportunities during  times  of uncertainty or volatility.  The  recommended  strategy  is to  “buy  on  dips,” that is, buy  when prices are low in anticipation of future  profits.  

 This year is expected to be characterized by high volatility due to several  key upcoming events,  suggesting a cautious and strategic  investment approach.  

 Do you  think  the market  will have  similar returns  to  last year?  In 2023,  Nifty 50 witnessed  impressive growth of over  20%, proving  its resilience and potential. Over the past three,  four  and five years, our compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has consistently exceeded  15%.  However,  it is  essential to  acknowledge  that the  Nifty’s long-term  historical  average has  typically  been  between 11  and 13%.  

  Assessing  current market conditions, we believe that the  market is  entering  a high price zone.  This doesn’t  mean  opportunities  to generate  alpha will disappear, but  they  may not reach the  levels  seen  in 2023. 

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 E-commerce  firm  Flipkart is implementing performance-based job  cuts,  which will  reduce the  team size by  5-7%, The  Times of India  reported.  The cuts will be based on  an  annual  performance review  and will be completed by March-April.  

 A major player in the Indian e-commerce  space,  the Walmart-owned company is  preparing  to undergo a restructuring phase to optimize its resources and operations. The company, excluding  fashion portal Myntra, currently  employs  22,000  people. 

 This is not the first  time  Flipkart  has made  performance-based job cuts. The report added that similar exercises have been in practice over the last two years.  

 Additionally, as part of cost-control measures, Flipkart has refrained from fresh hiring in the past year. The company is finalizing a $1 billion financing round, including contributions from Walmart and other investors.  

 Sources told the paper that Flipkart is gearing up to enhance the utilisation of its resources across existing and new business ventures. Discussions and decisions regarding the restructuring plans and the 2024 roadmap are slated for a meeting involving senior executives in the coming month. 

 Future plans  

 Sources said that despite  the ongoing  restructuring process,  Flipkart  has maintained  its decision to  postpone the IPO  until  2024.  Previous  IPO  plans for  2022-2023  have been temporarily  stopped.  

 Flipkart’s strategic  projects,  including  the  recent acquisition of Cleartrip,  partly owned  by  Adani Group, have achieved a gross merchandise value (GMV) of approximately  $1.5 billion to $1.7  billion. The company is  considering  further  investment  in its hotel business, expanding Cleartrip’s services beyond airline  ticket booking.  

Sources close to the company  said  Flipkart has been  working  hard  on internal  coordination  for several months. The restructuring  is part of  the company’s  goal  to reassess its current and future business  trajectory.  They added that while securing $600 million in fresh capital from parent company Walmart as part of the ongoing $1 billion  funding  round, Flipkart’s senior management is actively  looking  to reduce  costs at all levels.  different  item.  

  Streamline the entire industry team  

  Many of India’s  major  internet companies,  boosted  by  strong  demand for technology services during the pandemic-induced  outbreak  in 2021, are now  streamlining  their teams. Industry experts  predict  similar  moves by  other  Indian-backed  organisations throughout 2024. 

  Insiders told the newspaper that  Flipkart’s restructuring phase  reflects the ups and downs of  the e-commerce  sector  in 2023,  leading to  necessary  adjustments.  The annual appraisal cycle at Flipkart drives these team restructuring efforts, aimed at optimising operations and resources. The industry-wide adjustments are a response to the changing dynamics in the e-commerce sector. 

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  2023  saw  a series of  incidents where  founders  clashed on  the  board  of  directors, putting  corporate governance standards  in the spotlight.  Byju Raveendran of  Byju’s,  Ashneer Grover  of Bharatpe  and Housing.com founder Rahul Yadav (in his new startup  avatar),  were all in the news  when it came  to issues  related  to their style of functioning.  TV Mohandas Pai, former  Infosys  board  member and co-founder of Aarin Capital Partners,  talks about the importance of having a high-quality  board  with capable independent directors  who have  can guide and  promote  a startup. Mohandas  Pai,  who is on  Byju’s  advisory  board,  declined to talk specifically about the edtech company.  Excerpt  from an interview: 

  Superstar founders everywhere  often  cause major  headaches for  boards  of  directors.  On the other hand, a  bloated board  can create  obstacles  for  stubborn  founders.  Recently,  many  businesses  are struggling to find  this  balance.  The board of directors  can  only  function  effectively  if  there is  a good chairman. The chairman is  the  person who manages the board and  interacts with  management to  ensure  things  run smoothly. It must  balance the interests of  investors and  the interests  of  managers.  The chairman  must be an advisor  to  management and  someone  who is  respected by  everyone. This is  the only way it will work in a  top  company. 

  The  board must engage with  management and  set  the rules of engagement.  The powers  and responsibilities of the  board of directors  and  management  must  be  clearly  defined. When you have a superstar and  a dynamic  CEO who believes  he is  changing the world,  there are  bound to be  problems.  There are very few such people in the world and you need them. But when  people  like that are  at the top, you need a  president  with great maturity and  skills. 

 Many of  India’s leading  IT services  companies, such as  Infosys and  Wipro, are role models  of high  standards of  corporate governance  in India. Of course,  along the  way there was an incident called  Satyam. However,  when it comes  to startups, it  seems  governance standards  still  have a long way to go.  For a listed company,  transparency  is  necessary as it involves third-party money. Therefore we must respect the standards.  In many listed companies  too, standards  are followed only in letter  and not in spirit. There are challenges there  too,  but  because  they have to report  there is a higher level  of transparency. 

  However,  in a private company, governance is a matter between investors and  management. That’s not  the  public’s business. Where is  the public  interest? The public did not invest any  money.  Therefore,  investors  must define principles on how  to  comply with  corporate governance  issues.  And  every time a  company (startup) plans  an IPO, it has  to accept greater transparency and  a higher level  of  accountability,  because  it is injecting  public money into the company.  Public  money can come from a large number of investors.  Therefore  their  behavior must  change. 

 In what way  do  you suggest  this  happens?  

At least two years before  the IPO,  they  need  to ensure they have independent directors and a  strong  chairman on the  board  and they  cannot  all  be investor nominees.  Candidates  will always listen to what the nominator wants. You  need  to find  the  people who will  do the  work and that  board needs  to work with  management to appoint bankers who will work with  the  accountants to ensure  financial accuracy.  

 When  submitting  the  prospectus,  make sure  to read  it  carefully, sign  it and  approve  the  resolution.  The red herring prospectus  should  reflect the  Board’s views.  The  Council must  take responsibility for  this.  Now, if a startup wants to  IPO in  six months  and  appoint  someone  as an independent  director,  what independent knowledge will  that person bring?  It  took a year and a half  to understand the  business.  New  entrants  3-4 months before the  IPO  cannot  help.  

  This is  a very valid point.  Often these  processes are not followed.  Some startups grant  significant  stock options one or two quarters after listing  (grants are limited).  When a large grant is  given  to  a  founder,  it  should have been discussed 6-9 months ago. My view is that investors  in  any company that  grants significant  options to  founders for a quarter  or two  should  have  this discussion  before the IPO. But  this is  not  stated  in the prospectus. Suddenly,  after a  quarter  or two,  they  make  stock  picks  and  it  becomes a surprise to  everyone. That’s  a big risk. You  cannot  suddenly change your mind. The market should have been informed about  this.  Giving them to  later  employees  is  a  normal  action,  but giving  them  to the founder is not  a  normal  action. 

  This  shows that the  Council has no  control.  This  shows  that  the  Council is  not up to date. They  are  not independent. Even  SEBI  regulations need to  be  amended  to  stipulate that  any company  seeking  an IPO  must  have  an independent  board of  directors  as  a listed company  for  at least  a  year before filing  its  prospectus. I think  this is an  urgently  needed reform.  If you appoint  an  independent director  2 to 3  months before the IPO,  that person will not  be  able to have  control.  

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 The auto dealer body said it maintains a  “cautiously  optimistic  outlook” for two-wheelers,  passenger  vehicles  and  utility vehicles.  

  Automobile  sales  in India for December 2023 and  FY23  closed in the green across  all  product segments.  According to  data released by the Federation of Automobile Dealers  Associations (FADA),  a total of 19,90,915 vehicles were registered across  various  categories last month,  corresponding  to a growth of  21.14% over the same period. period last year.  

 Interestingly, the electric rickshaw and tractor segment  was  the only  segment  to  register  growth  compared to November 2023 festive sales. 

 In 2023, retail sales will reach 2,38,67,990 units, an increase of 11.05%  over the  same period last year.  Manish Raj Singhania,  Chairman, FADA, said:  “In the two-wheeler  segment, the  key  factors are the  abundance of  wedding  dates and the  allocation  of  crop  payments to farmers, which  has helped improve  purchasing power. Additionally, the availability of  multiple  models and variants, coupled with  favorable  weather conditions and  generally positive market sentiment, contributed to this  strong  growth.  Greater  product acceptance,  especially  among the youth, and lucrative  financing  options, coupled with  price increases  expected by  January 2024,  have boosted purchases.  

  The light commercial vehicle  segment  witnessed  positive growth as  growing  industrial activity and infrastructure development continued to  drive  demand for  commercial and commercial vehicles, he added. heavyweight.  

  Demand  for buses  especially  benefited  from  tourism and  transport, supported  by orders from various  public  transport  services.  Additionally,  strong  liquidity in rural areas and  a  financial boost from crop sales supported customer purchases, although retail  sales  remained  slightly  subdued despite some  advance purchases. Large quantities were made.  

 The passenger  car  segment  continues  to see  strong  demand for SUVs,  with extended waiting  times  for key models. This  increase is driven  by aggressive year-end promotions and the introduction of new  car  models. 

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 The large-cap threshold has been increased to Rs 67,000 crore from Rs 49,700 crore in June  2023  and the  mid-cap threshold increased  to Rs 22,000 crore from Rs 17,400 crore. 

  Following  the  restructuring initiative  of  the Association of Mutual Funds  of  India (AMFI), Jio Financial  entered the large-cap segment, while  new entrants such as  Tata Tech, JSW  Infra  and IREDA  made their  debuts. Currently  in the  mid-cap segment.  

 The large-cap threshold has been increased to Rs 67,000 crore from Rs 49,700 crore in June  2023  and the  mid-cap threshold increased  to Rs 22,000 crore from Rs 17,400 crore. Effective from February and  in effect  until July this year, these changes will  apply  until the next  round of AMFI reforms.  

 In the transition from mid-cap to large-cap status, Jio Financial is a notable addition. Other stocks promoted include Power Finance Corporation, IRFC, Macrotech Developers, Polycab India, REC, Shriram Finance, Union  Bank  and IOB.  

 Stocks moving from  small  to mid-cap include Mazagon Dock, Suzlon Energy, Lloyds Metals, SJVN, Kalyan  Jewelers,  KEI Industries, Credit Access Grameen, Exide Industries, Nippon Life, Ajanta Pharma, Narayana  Hrudaya  and Glenmark Pharma. 

  While the  stocks moving from  large cap  to  mid cap  are Hero Motocorp Limited, Samvardhana Motherson International Limited, Tube Investments Of India Limited, Bosch Limited, Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation Limited, PI Industries Limited, Adani Wilmar  Limited  and UPL Limited.  

 For more  information,  visit at https://happenrecently.com/zepto/?amp=1