Economists say  that with  initial estimates of 7.3%  for this  financial year,  the second half  of the year  will see  slightly  slower  numbers.  

 Economists  welcomed India’s  real GDP growth in  2023-24,  estimated at  7.3%, up from 7.2%  a year ago,  according to  the first  preliminary estimate  of national income released by the National  Statistics  Office (NSO),  means  the Indian  economy is  set  to  show  strong growth. However,  it  said  with the first  advance  estimate  of 7.3%  for this  financial year,  the second half  of the year  will see  slightly  slower  numbers.  For FY25, Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings, said, “We expect real GDP growth  to be between 6.5% and 7%.  The  main controllable factor will  be a  broader recovery  in  consumer  demand, which  will depend  on  a  further  recovery  in the informal sector and rural demand. The other  important  aspect  will  be a  significant recovery  in private investment in the coming quarters.” 

  NSO’s  outlook  is in line  with the Reserve Bank of  India’s  (RBI)  growth  forecast revision, raising  it to  7%  from the  previous  estimate of  6.5%. According to  economists,  growth was driven  by the manufacturing  and construction  sectors,  while  growth  in the services sector  was somewhat moderate.  “While agriculture growth slowed  significantly  to  1.8%  from  4.0%  last fiscal,  non-farm drivers  more than offset its impact.  In this context,  industry, especially  construction,  has  become  an important driver, while services have seen  regulation. On  the demand side, investments have  created a wall.  Private consumption growth  was  at 4.4 per  cent, lower than  overall GDP  growth,  said Dharmakirti Joshi,  chief economist at  CRISIL Ltd. 

 Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head  of  Research and Outreach, ICRA Ltd 

 The  preliminary estimate  released by  NSO  pegs  GDP growth in  FY24  at  7.3%,  much higher than our estimate of  6.5%.  Implicitly,  NSO expects  GDP growth to moderate  at 7.0%  in  the second half of FY24,  from  7.7%  in  the  first half of FY24. Surprising is the  GVA growth  Estimated at 6.9%  for FY2024 implies that growth in  the index is expected to be 6.2%  in  the second half of the year,  significantly lower than the  estimated  GDP  figure  for  the period.

 In our view, the  expected  growth  in H2FY24  is quite  strong,  given the  gloomy agriculture sector  outlook  amid low  kharif output and  continued delay  in rabi  sowing ,  as well as  concerns about a  temporary slowdown in  investment in  the  near future.  Elections. In fact,  Indian government investment fell 8.8% year-on-year in October-November 2023, after growing 43.1% in  the  first half of FY24.  

  As a result,  we believe that  agriculture  and construction GVA growth  in the second half of FY24  is likely to  be  lower than  the  ONS estimate. Furthermore,  we also believe that the  estimated  growth  of  the services sector  in  the  second half of FY24 will be higher.  

  NSO  pegs  nominal GDP growth at  8.9% for FY24, significantly  lower than the  16.1%  seen in  FY23,  with the deceleration largely  due to  WPI  reversal towards deflation compared  to  inflation in the previous year. Based on  nominal GDP for  FY24  estimated by  NSO, the  absolute  fiscal deficit  in the Government  of  India’s budget is  Rs 17.9 trillion  or 6.0%  of GDP,  slightly  higher than  BE  for FY24 is 5.9%  of GDP.  Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings 

  India’s  GDP growth  in  FY24  according to  FAE at  7.3% was  a positive surprise.  Outstanding  growth  was driven  by the manufacturing  and construction  sectors,  while  growth  in the services sector  was moderate.  The sharp deceleration in the  commercial, hospitality, transport  and  communication segments  is not  too worrying  as  it  is  explained by last year’s  high base  and  decline  in discretionary demand.  Growth was weaker in  the agriculture  sector,  at  1.8%, in line with expectations due to a  poor monsoon. 

  The  worrying  aspect  of  the GDP data is  weak consumption  growth,  at  4.4%.  This would be the slowest consumption growth in the  last  two  decades, if  the pandemic year  21 were not included.  Investment  increased  by  10.3% thanks to significant investments from the Center  and  state governments. However,  to maintain  investment  growth,  it is  important  that  consumption growth  is maintained. While  global growth  remains  weak,  India’s  export growth  is  weak at  1.4%  in FY24.  Estimated  nominal GDP growth of  8.9%  raises some  concerns about  its potential impact on  fiscal deficit target  in  FY24.  

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 The report said GDP in the  greater  South  Asia  region grew  about 5.3%  in 2023 and is  expected  to  grow 5.2%  in 2024,  thanks to strong  expansion in India,  “still fastest growing major  economy in the  world. world”.  

 A United Nations report  on  Friday revised  India’s  gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for  calendar year  2024  to  6.2%,  from  a previous  estimate of  6.7%. 

 “Growth in India is  expected  to reach  6.2%  in 2024, slightly lower than the  6.3% estimated  for 2023, amid  strong  domestic  demand,” the report said. strong  and strong growth in the manufacturing and  service sectors. WESP).  report.  

 The report said GDP in the  greater  South  Asia  region grew  about 5.3%  in 2023 and is  expected  to  grow 5.2%  in 2024,  thanks to strong  expansion in India,  “still fastest growing major  economy in the  world”.  

UN report  says China’s  investment  outlook faces challenges related to  a struggling  real estate sector, despite somewhat  government-led infrastructure  investment compensate for  the shortfall in private  investment. This  assessment comes at a time  when  India is positioning itself as an  alternative  investment destination to China.  

 “In 2022, FDI (foreign direct investment) flows  into  India  increased  by  10%,  making it the third  host country for  newly  announced  projects. Another driver of  domestic  fixed capital formation  is  increased  public  spending on  road, rail  and renewable energy projects, which  could  have a  pull-up  effect on private sector  investment.” ,  the report said. 

  The report  points out that  global  goods  trade and global industrial production remain exceptionally weak amid cyclical and structural  headwinds,  and  that in  the third quarter of 2023, the  managers’ index Manufacturing purchases are  in  decline  in all of the  world’s  largest  economies,  except India.  

 The report said slowing global demand, unresolved trade tensions between  major  trading partners and geopolitical conflicts are affecting trade flows in the  near  term. The war in Ukraine and  sanctions  against  Russia have also shaped  the structure of  global  trade. 

  “For example, the Russian Federation’s crude  oil exports  have shifted from the European Union to China and India,  these two countries  accounted for  nearly 75%  of the  country’s  crude oil exports in the first  quarter,” he pointed out.  of  2023”.  

 “Warmer-than-average temperatures  are  likely  to increase electricity  demand and  could  also  strain  local hydropower resources amid  low rainfall,  which could lead to  limited energy distribution in the  industrial activity, as has  been  done recently  by some  countries in  South Asia. year,” he  said.  

 The report  highlights  that climate  change  events  will continue  to  harm  the South  Asia  region in 2023.  Drought increased significantly in  July and August, affecting most of India, Nepal and  Bangladesh , while Pakistan recorded above-average rainfall.  The  GDP growth  forecast for 2023 has been  revised  up  by 0.5 percentage points to  6.3%. 

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Indian tycoon Gautam Adani surpassed fellow businessman Mukesh Ambani in net worth this week, reaching $97.6 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Adani’s wealth increased by approximately $7.7 billion during this period.

Gautam Adani has regained his position as Asia’s wealthiest individual, according to the Bloomberg index of billionaires. This comes a year after his conglomerate, Adani Group, suffered significant losses due to market manipulation allegations. Adani’s fortune saw a sharp decline of around $80 billion, but he and his business have managed to recover much of those losses. 

Adani’s net worth increased by approximately $7.7 billion this week, reaching $97.6 billion, making him slightly wealthier than fellow Indian magnate Mukesh Ambani. Currently, they rank as the 12th and 13th richest individuals globally, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Shares in Adani Group companies saw an increase this week following a Supreme Court ruling that dismissed a petition seeking a wider investigation into the Hindenburg allegations. 

The Supreme Court deemed the ongoing investigations by market regulators to be sufficient. Adani expressed gratitude for the support received and affirmed the continuation of their contribution to India’s growth story. 

Adani has consistently refuted the fraud allegations outlined in the Hindenburg report, labeling it a deliberate attempt to harm the reputation of the conglomerate for the benefit of short-sellers.

Prior to the report, Adani Group experienced a significant increase in its stock prices, particularly with its primary listed unit which saw a rise of over 1,000 percent in the five years leading up to January 2023. This surge in profits allowed the conglomerate to rapidly expand across various sectors such as coal mining, renewable energy, ports, and airports. 

Adani’s association with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who also hails from Gujarat state, has raised allegations of unfair business practices and inadequate scrutiny. These claims have been made by opposition parties and other critics.

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 Commander Madhwal explained, “The Indian Navy’s marine commandos on board the mission-deployed warship boarded the merchant vessel, conducting the sanitization operation.” 

 The Indian Navy’s elite marine commandos, in a successful operation on January 5, 2024, rescued 21 crew members from the Liberian-flagged vessel MV Lila Norfolk, including 15 Indians. The swift response was triggered by an attempted hijacking in the North Arabian Sea. 

  Deploying a comprehensive strategy involving a warship, maritime patrol aircraft, helicopters, P-8I, and long-range aircraft, along with Predator MQ9B drones (Indian Navy has on lease two drones from the US based General Atomics), the Indian Navy decisively intervened when approximately five to six armed individuals attempted the hijacking. 

  In fact at the Naval Headquarters, the officials were watching the whole rescue operation live using the feed that was being transmitted real time by the MQ-9B Predator drones.  

 Commander Vivek Madhwal, the Indian Navy’s spokesperson, affirmed, “All 21 crew members, including 15 Indians on board the vessel, were safely evacuated from the citadel.” The MARCOs commandos conducted a sanitization operation, confirming the absence of hijackers, suggesting the attempt was likely abandoned due to the forceful warning from the Indian Navy’s maritime patrol aircraft.  Upon approaching  the hijacked  ship,  the Indian Navy diverted the frontline warship INS Chennai from its anti-piracy patrol, intercepting  it  at 3:15 pm on Friday. Continuous surveillance  is  maintained using  P8I  maritime patrol aircraft  and Predator MQ9B  drones  from the  US company  General Atomics. 

  Commander Madhwal  explained: “Maritime commandos of the  Indian  Navy  on board the  warship  deployed on duty  boarded the merchant  ship and carried out  the  fumigation operation. 

 MV Lila Norfolk  reported  the incident through the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) portal, reporting  five to six  unidentified  armed individuals  boarding the vessel  on Thursday evening. The Navy closely monitored the  situation and responded quickly  to the  incident by deploying  maritime patrol aircraft and  redirecting the  INS Chennai  ship  to ensure the  safety  of  the  MV Lila Norfolk. 

  The  robbery  occurred  amid growing  concerns  about increased attacks by  Houthi  rebels  on merchant  ships  in the Red Sea, coinciding with the  conflict between Israel and Hamas.  The Indian Navy  reaffirmed  its commitment to ensuring  maritime security  in the region,  cooperating  with international partners and friendly  countries. 

  UKMTO, a British military organization  that monitors ship  movements, reported the successful rescue  of  the Indian  naval  ship INS Chennai. Steve Kunzer, CEO of Lila Global, expressed gratitude for the rescue and  noted  the professionalism of the crew. 

  The Indian  Naval  Information Fusion  Center in  the Indian Ocean Region (IFC IOR) actively monitors  maritime  traffic and  important  developments in the region. Recent maritime incidents include  the  drone attack on  the  MV Chem Pluto, a  suspected drone attack on a  commercial oil  tanker,  and the hijacking of the  MV Ruen-flagged  vessel  Malta.  

The Indian Navy  remains vigilant and monitors  maritime security in the North and Central Arabian  Seas as well as the  Gulf of Aden.  Ships, aircraft  and task  forces continue to carry out their tasks of enhancing maritime  surveillance and  security  activities,  investigating fishing vessels and  receiving  vessels of  concern  in the past week. 

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 The review comes at a time when the  Ministry aims  to make the  program  more  effective  and  plans  to  redress the situation in areas  where the  program is  not  delivering the  expected results.  

 The Union government is set to review the flagship  Production Linked Incentive  (PLI) scheme on January 12,  Secretary  Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT)  said on Thursday.  Rajesh Kumar  Singh.  

 The government is focusing on existing PLI schemes for 14 sectors and is not considering new PLIs, he said. The review comes at a time when the  Ministry aims  to make the  program  more  effective  and  plans  to  redress the situation in areas  where the  program is  not  delivering the  expected results. 

 In  a statement last month,  PPIT  said 746 applications have been approved till November 2023 and over Rs 95,000 crore  investments have been received  till September 2023.  The government estimates that production or sales  worth  Rs 7.80 lakh crore  took  place  through  the  project, creating  over 6.4 lakh jobs. 

  Former RBI  Governor  Raghuram  Rajan criticized the PLI scheme  in a social media post,  saying  that job creation under the scheme  was  not  proportional to  the investments made and  the government should  disclose  more data  because millions and billions  of public money  have  been pumped into  this program.  

 “The PLI review will take place on the 12th.  Currently,  we are  focusing  on getting these 14 PLIs. All  working  in  the right direction.  So  as of now,  the new PLIs are  yet to be  considered and we will focus on ensuring that these existing  plans are  implemented well and  we will  review them thereafter,”  Singh said  at  a press  conference.  Singh also said the  ministry  is  conducting  a third-party  review  of the PLI scheme  for electronic  goods  (air conditioners  and LED lights). 

  “The purpose  of  each measure  is to get real feedback on how  useful  these interventions  are  and what  quantifiable outcomes  are from them,”  Singh said. 

  PLI scheme  announced in 2021 for 14 sectors, such as  telecommunications,  white goods, textiles,  medical  equipment manufacturing,  automobiles,  special  steel, food products,  solar  photovoltaic modules high performance,  advanced  cell  chemistry, drones  and  pharmaceutical industry. The budget is  Rs 1.97 lakh crore. 

  “Telecom sector has achieved 60% import  substitution  and India has become almost  self-reliant  in  antennas,  GPON (Gigabit Passive Optical Network)  and  CPE (Customer Premises Equipment).  Imports  of raw materials in the  pharmaceutical sector have decreased significantly.  Unique  intermediates  and bulk drugs are  manufactured in  India,  including  penicillin-G,  and  technology  transfer  has taken place in the production  of  medical devices  such as  CT, MRI, etc. “, PIIT  said in a statement last month. 

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  Annual  gross domestic product  estimates will rise  after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)  last month  revised its own growth forecast  to 7% for the current  financial  year, from  its previous estimate. that’s 6%. 

 India is  expected  to  grow  7%  in  the 2023/24  financial  year ending  March when the first  preliminary  GDP estimates  were  released today. 

  Preliminary GDP  estimates  published  by the  Office for  National  Statistics may be revised  six  times  over time. 

  Annual  gross domestic product  estimates will rise  after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)  last month  revised its own growth forecast  to 7% for the current  financial  year, from  its previous estimate. that’s 6%. Michael Patra said last month that the  central bank’s revised  7%  growth forecast  for 2023/24 was a “conservative estimate”  given the strong  growth reflected in  frequency indicator data. High numbers in  October and  November.

 Prime Minister Narendra Modi has increased  government  spending on infrastructure projects to  support  economic growth amid sluggish consumer spending,  which  analysts  say will  help him win  won  a third term in  national  elections  scheduled before May. 

  India’s  economy grew faster than expected  at  7.6% year-on-year in the September quarter,  following  7.8%  growth  in the previous quarter, prompting many private economists to  make a correction. re  their  annual  estimates.

  Additionally,  S&P Global Ratings expects India  to  remain the fastest-growing major economy  over  the next three  years and is expected  to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030.  

 S&P expects India, currently the world’s fifth-largest economy, to grow  6.4% this fiscal  year  and estimates growth will  reach  7% by fiscal 2027.  By  contrast,  they predict  China’s growth  rate will  slow to 4.6%  in 2026,  from an estimated 5.4% this year. 

  Economists said the RBI’s  Monetary Policy Committee  (MPC) is unlikely to cut the  policy rate  by  6.5%  in  the  coming quarters, given  the risk of a spike in food inflation in the election year. 

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