Multiple factors are contributing to the stagnation of India’s Russian oil imports in the coming months, including decreased purchases of Sokol crude by Indian refiners, smaller discounts on Russian oil, higher freight costs and risk premiums due to the Red Sea crisis, and increased sanctions on tankers violating price caps.
These issues suggest limited growth in Russian oil imports for India. Despite a temporary increase in Russian oil imports in February, overall imports have stabilized at around 1.5-1.6 million bpd.
As a result, Indian refiners are turning to traditional suppliers in West Asia, such as Iraq, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, to meet their oil needs.
The absence of Sokol deliveries to India and narrowing price differentials are further hindering the increase in Russian oil imports.
Despite these challenges, the possibility of higher oil imports from Russia remains if Indian refiners secure a term contract with Rosneft.
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