Data released  Friday showed core CPI inflation  eased  to a 48-month low of 3.9% in December from 4.1% in November, while CPI inflation rose to a  high. highest in 4 months was  5.69% from 5.55%. 

  Economists say the  Reserve Bank of  India’s  (RBI) monetary policy action may be credited  with bringing down  core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in  recent months, but  the The lower  core  number at 4%  also  indicates  weak demand conditions in the country at an  overall level. speak.

  Interestingly,  this  also  somewhat contradicts  the  RBI’s assessment  in its November bulletin that  “investment  demand appears  resilient due  to  government  infrastructure spending,  rise  in private  investment  and  digitization”. The central bank  even expressed  concern  about  a  possible  new round  of  demand-driven  inflation.

 Data released  Friday showed core CPI inflation  eased  to a 48-month low of 3.9% in December from 4.1% in November, while CPI inflation rose to a  high. highest in 4 months was  5.69% from 5.55%. 

  “While India’s tightening  monetary policy  can be  attributed to  weakening core inflation, we also see clear signs of  stress,”  said Kunal Kundu, India  economist at Société Générale. Prolonged family tensions also play a role.  The Reserve Bank of India has kept the policy repo rate unchanged  from  February 2022 at 6.50%. In  its  December monetary policy  meeting, the  RBI  said  underlying deflation was “stable,” reflecting  the impact of past monetary policy  measures.  

 ICICI Bank said  the fall in  core inflation  was due to fall  in global  energy and  commodity  prices and  resulted in a  pass-through  effect to  the economy  as well as “moderate consumption”.  

  Weak  demand  can  also be  measured  by  weak  growth in  the production of  consumer durables (goods  used  directly  by consumers  with a  long  life  of  2 to 3  years)  –  in  8 months beginning of fiscal 2024, up only 0.8% year-on-year. compared to  the  8.9% growth recorded in  2024. in  the  same  period of  fiscal 2023.  In November,  growth  in durable consumption in manufactured goods was  at a  five-month low, at level  (-)5.4%.  Additionally,  private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is expected to grow  4.4%  year-on-year  in FY24  – according to the  National  Bureau of Statistics’  first  preliminary estimate – here  is  The fastest and  slowest  speeds  in the current series  date back to  2011-12. This  does not include  the pandemic year FY21, where PFCE  fell  5.2%. 

  High-frequency  demand  indices  reflect bleaker conditions in rural areas  than in  urban  areas. What is interesting to note is that  this situation  comes against the backdrop of a higher than expected  GDP growth  rate, i.e.  7.3%  for  the current  financial year.  

  In general,  economists  argue  that  high  economic growth  increases  demand,  which then leads  to higher core inflation. However, the  current  state of the core CPI has left some economists  confused. 

  “The decline in  core inflation at a time of strong economic growth is a  headache,”  said Sunil Sinha,  senior economist at  India Ratings and Research. 

  But  Ashima Goyal, an external member of the RBI’s monetary policy committee, answered  this  question  to some  extent, saying  there  was  no  second-order impact on  wages from  previous shocks. for commodity prices, because  the  Indian  labor market is “loose”.

  According to  the  Regular Labor  Force Survey,  earnings  growth  of regular workers in  the first quarter of  FY24  increased  to 7.8% from 6.1% in the previous year. But for  seasonal  workers,  income  growth  dropped  sharply,  from 17.1% during  this period to 5.2%.  Goyal also said  some  companies  have reversed earlier price increases that  led to  higher  costs  and  that supply-side measures by the  government  have  limited short-term  price  increases. Furthermore, India’s major  oil  companies can  pass on the benefits of lower oil prices to consumers. 

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  As  the  “Future  of the Skills Landscape  2024” report reveals, 82% of employed people expressed concern about the possibility of their roles becoming obsolete. 

 It is believed that the integration of  artificial intelligence  and automation  will lead to significant  unemployment. Contrary to this  idea,  the  “Future  of  Jobs” report  published by the World Economic Forum (with TCS as a strategic partner),  predicts  the creation of 12 million more jobs  thanks to  AI by  2025,compared to  the number  of displaced people.  In  reality,  only those  who  fail  to  acquire  new skills and  adapt  to the  changing  needs  of the job market  will lose their  jobs.  Sumit Kumar, strategy director at TeamLease Degree Apprenticeship, told FE Education, from  computers and software to the  internet  and now AI, these  advances  have  continuously created  more  job opportunities. “Manufacturing industries are  expected to benefit the most from  AI-driven  job  expansion, especially in  supply chain, quality control,  predictive capabilities,” he said. market,  customer service and  sales”.  

 Amid technological  advances,  82% of employed  people  expressed concern about the  possibility  of their  roles becoming obsolete,  as revealed in the  report “The Future  of the Skills Landscape  2024”.  The report  highlights growing concerns among  the  Indian  workforce  about  the  risk  of job  loss  due to  technological advances, thereby emphasizing  the need for  continued  reskilling. “Continuous reskilling and upskilling  is  essential  to prepare today’s  workforce. It is imperative for both  livelihoods  and  employment  to  systematically  invest in these  activities.  While  organizations need to  focus on talent development, individuals  have  the responsibility  to continuously improve  their  skills  to  maintain employment,”  Kumar said.  

 Additionally, NASSCOM has introduced  programs tailored to  roles and  skills, keeping in mind the  jobs of the future. Successful  implementation of a program  requires collaboration between  industry and academia.  Further,  the government, through the  NSDC-led  Skill India  Mission,  is promoting digital literacy to address skill  generation  in AI and related technologies, he said  in response  to a  question. of  collaborative efforts between  industry, universities  and government  agencies.  facilitate the positive impact of AI on job creation. 

  As of August 2023, the  number of  AI  professionals in India reached  4.16  lakh,  ready to  meet  the  growing  demand  expected  to  reach  one million by 2026.  According to ‘India Skills Report 2024’,  India faces a  significant supply  gap  of 60-73%  in  key roles such as  Machine Learning (ML)  Engineers, Data Scientists, Engineering  DevOps engineer and data  architect.  “These job opportunities will  include  a variety of roles, spanning both technical and non-technical  sectors,  across  a variety of  functions and  sectors.  Sectors  like  healthcare, retail, BFSI,  logistics,  supply chain management and manufacturing will see a  combination  of  basic  and advanced  level  AI  roles, Kumar explains. affecting  both direct and indirect  impacts  on the  industry.  

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  However, trade  sources are  skeptical about the  effectiveness  of  government-subsidized sales.  

  Sources said the  government is likely to  meet its  plan to sell rice at  subsidized  prices in  retail markets  due to excess rice inventory  within a  week.

 Currently, the scope of the  Bharat Rice initiative,  including pricing and  retail  pack  sizes,  is being discussed. The  scheme aims  to  rein in  retail prices of  mass-market  rice varieties, which have remained  high despite  restrictions  on certain exports and open market sales by the Food Corporation of India.  

  However, trade  sources are  skeptical about the  effectiveness  of  government-subsidized sales. Currently,  the government  sells  chana dal and atta  (wheat flour)  at  a subsidized rate  of Rs 60/kg and Rs  27.50/kg  through  agricultural  cooperative Nafed and NCCF  stores as well as  Kendriya Bhandars  under  the initiative ​​Bharat  Dal and Bharat  Atta. 

  The  food ministry said  domestic  rice  prices  are  high  despite  record output,  adequate reserves  with  the  FCI  and various restrictions and  taxes  imposed on grain exports. 

  The  sale of surplus rice  in the open market  to bulk buyers by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) at  a subsidized  rate of Rs  2,900 per quintal has been well received, the price being  below the economic cost of  rice. cup in 2022 -2023, or  Rs 3,537/quintal.  As of July 2023,  FCI  has been able to  sell only 0.15 million  tonnes  of rice through weekly e-auctions so  far,  against  the  allocation of 5  tonnes  for the current year. 

  Retail rice prices  increased  by 12.33% in December and rice prices  have been  at  a high  level since October 2022. This is despite the  government’s efforts  to sell surplus rice  from FCI stocks  in the open  market. 

 “Let me  look into  the issue of  rice price hike and I will take appropriate steps to resolve  the  issue,”  Food  Minister  Piyush Goyal  said  on Saturday. 

  The government  banned  white rice  exports  and imposed  a  20% export  tax  on  cooked  rice last year to improve domestic supplies. 

  However, to meet the food security needs  of  developing countries,  governments provide  rice on  demand.  Goyal  said  India  recently supplied  rice to countries like Indonesia,  Senegal  and  Gambia.  Meanwhile, Goyal  said  on Sunday  that  FCI’s  open  sale  program  has  proven  to be an effective tool in  regulating  prices of essential commodities like wheat and rice. 

  “Bharat Atta, Bharat  Dal and onion and tomato  interventions  have  helped the Indian government stabilize prices,”  Goyal said at  the FCI’s  60th foundation  ceremony.  

 He  called on  FCI to  embrace  technology and  digitalization  to improve operational efficiency. “We should  embrace  technology and  digitalization  to improve  our  operational efficiency and  how much  we  spend, and  how we can control  and reduce  costs,”  Goyal said. 

  He  believes that FCI’s operating costs can  be reduced through route  optimization, mechanized  loading and unloading and  application  of  modern storage  systems.  Goyal  proposed organizing  a hackathon to  seek  ideas in these areas. 

  FCI  processes  more than 70 million  tons  of rice and  wheat each year. Of the  food expenditure of  about  Rs 2 trillion in the current  financial year,  Rs 1.37 trillion is  channeled  through FCI. 

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 India,  currently  the world’s fifth largest economy, is  expected  to become the third largest by 2027,  according to  the International Monetary Fund. 

  India’s  wealthy  class is expected to  number  100 million by 2027, a  Goldman Sachs  report said  on Friday, adding that  indigenous companies selling premium  products  will outperform  their  broad-based  competitors.  According to  a  Goldman report, the purchasing power of  higher-income  Indians has increased  over  the past  decade thanks  to  strong economic growth, stable monetary policy and  strong  credit growth.  

 As a result, the number of  wealthy  Indians  earning more than  $10,000  (8.28  lakh)  per  year has  increased  from 24 million in 2015 to 60 million  today.  India,  currently  the world’s fifth largest economy, is  expected  to become the third largest by 2027,  according to  the International Monetary Fund.  According to Bloomberg citing a Goldman report,  India has  seen the purchasing  power  of  the middle class  increase,  which benefits  companies  with premium brands in  entertainment, jewelry, products outdoor  and  health.  

 The significant  increase  in  the  value of  the country’s  financial and physical assets  over  the past three years is  leading to growing  wealth.  Gold  and property are  considered  important  means  of  storing  wealth. There has been a  major  shift in households investing in  stocks through  direct stocks or mutual funds over the  past  five years, the report added.

  According to  Goldman  Sachs,  the  gap  between the  purchasing  power of the  highest  and middle income groups remains  a problem  in India. More than 96  million  debit cards have been issued in the country and 9.30  million  Indians have postpaid  phone connections. But  the report adds that  only 3  million  Indians can afford  to buy  a  car.  

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 According to a Bloomberg report, the  $110/$130 call  spread  on Brent  crude in  May and June  attracted bets equivalent to  about  30 million  barrels. 

 By Bhavik Patel 

 Oil  prices are  in the range of  5800-6200,  but there  are  also  fluctuations within this  narrow range.  Prices react to  every geopolitical event in the Middle  East,  especially in the Red Sea. We have seen crude  oil prices fall due to higher-than-expected US inventories and falling demand, but in the face  of  opposition, Houthi attacks  on ships in  the  Red Sea have  created a favorable tailwind. which they need  to  maintain. floating prices.  

 Recent attacks on Yemen by US and  British  forces will also  escalate  the  conflict,  as  the  Houthis will also retaliate  for  the attack. These events will give any correction in crude  oil prices the  opportunity to take long positions. Hedge funds and other  money  managers ended the  final  week of 2023 with the  highest number of  new bearish positions in futures and options  since March and the  second-biggest increase  in  volume.  weekly  short  additions since 2017. 

  The reason  we  like  to  hold a long position is  the  balance between  supply and  demand,  which  indicates an uptrend. January’s huge  surplus  is expected to shrink  thanks to OPEC+  voluntary cuts  and  another  Libyan  oil field  could be closed. US  crude oil supply will continue  to increase  in 2024, but at a slower  rate. Traders are optimistic  that Brent could reach $110 by  April,  although we do not  expect prices to rise as sharply. According to  a  Bloomberg report, the  $110/$130 call  spread  on Brent  crude in  May and June  attracted bets equivalent to  about  30 million  barrels. Buyers  of this  special spread  option  will benefit  if oil prices  reach $110/barrel  by the end of March and  the  end of April, when the May and June  options expire  respectively.

  Therefore,  we believe the downside is limited but the upside will be  limited to  around  $86 to $90. However, fundamentals are  now  pointing  to  an uptrend, whether it’s a smaller  surplus  ahead  or  tensions in the  Red  Sea,  any dip around  5,900  is a buying  opportunity. 

Expected  target  is 6,200 to 6,300  and  stop loss is 5,800 for  MCX.  

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  “Secretary  Goyal highlighted  the difficulties  faced by  Indian businessmen  due to  delays in  visa processing  and requested the  United States  to  enhance processing,” the  joint statement said. 

  A senior government official said  New Delhi has sought  to make visas  easier  for Indian traders and investors,  participating  in  Washington government markets  and also asked the  US  to  set up  make permanent the system  that allows qualified  applicants to  self-renew  their H-1B  visas  there  instead of  returning to their home country.  Saturday.  

 India raised these concerns at the Trade Policy Forum (TPF) meeting  on Friday,  co-chaired by  US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and  Minister of  Commerce and Industry  Piyush  Goyal. At  the TPF meeting, the two  Governments  noted that the movement of  highly skilled  and  specialized  workers, students, investors and  entrepreneurs  between the countries contributes  greatly  to  strengthening the partnership  bilateral  economics  and  technology.  

  “Secretary  Goyal highlighted  the difficulties  faced by  Indian businessmen  due to  delays in  visa processing  and requested the  United States  to  enhance  processing,”  the  joint statement said.  India has also asked the US to  set up  a permanent process for Indian H1B visa holders in the US to renew  these  visas in the US itself so that they do not have to  travel  to  India, the government official said. Because of this.  

 Currently, in the  United States,  this  state  facility  is a pilot  program. State facilities mean  H1B visa  holders  can  only be  renewed in the  United States.  

  “Now  we are asking to make it  permanent  and we are asking to extend this facility not only  for  the original visa holder but  also for his  family  so that the family does not need to come back  India  to  extend visa “,”,  India has  asked  the US to consider India as an  “approved country”  for E1 and E2 visas,  for traders and investors. Currently, India does not have  this  status. 

  The manager added: “Therefore, it has been requested  that India should also be considered  a part of the treaty  so that  E1 and E2  visas, intended  for investors and traders,  should  also  be granted  to  India”. .  

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  Luxurious  hospitality  extends  to Ayodhya: 

 Radisson,  Taj  and ITC  open  high-end  hotels 

 In  the wake of  significant  growth in Ayodhya’s  tourism  industry,  three  prominent hotel groups –  Radisson,  Taj  and ITC  –  are set to establish their presence in the city.  The  move comes as  Ayodhya’s  historical and religious  importance  continues to attract  growing  numbers  of tourists. The addition of luxury hotels  not only  demonstrates  the  growing appeal  of Ayodhya as a tourist destination but also  creates  an opportunity for these  prestigious  hotel chains to contribute to  economic and  grassroots development. city’s infrastructure.  

  Tourism  potential of Ayodhya: 

 Ayodhya, located in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh,  is of  immense cultural,  historical  and religious importance. As the birthplace of Lord Rama, it is a  holy  city for millions of Hindus and a  place  of pilgrimage. The recent construction of the Ram Mandir, a grand temple dedicated to Lord Rama, has further enhanced Ayodhya’s global prominence. This has sparked a surge in tourism, as visitors from around the world are drawn to the city’s rich cultural heritage and spiritual significance.  

 Radisson’s Venture into Ayodhya: 

 Radisson, a globally recognized hospitality brand, is gearing up to launch its luxury hotel in Ayodhya. The hotel is expected to offer world-class amenities, combining modern comforts with a touch of traditional elegance. With a focus on providing a unique and immersive experience, Radisson aims to cater to the discerning needs of travelers seeking luxury accommodation in Ayodhya. 

  Park Inn by Radisson Ayodhya can be easily accessed by car or taxi from Maharishi Valmiki International Airport, and Ayodhya Cantt Railway Station. It also has ample parking space for those traveling by car. The hotel offers proximity to notable landmarks such as the Ram Janmabhoomi Temple, The Hanuman Garhi Temple, and Sita ki Rasoi, among others.

  Park Inn by Radisson Ayodhya features well-appointed rooms and suites designed for comfort and relaxation. Each room is adorned by stone accents, large windows, and pleasing interiors that display a blend of modern and traditional elements, ensuring a comfortable stay for the guests. The hotel also  offers  amenities such as a swimming pool and a fully equipped gym for guests  looking for  relaxation or  invigorating  exercise.  

 The hotel  offers multi-purpose  event spaces, including  spacious banquet  halls  and modern, well-equipped spaces suitable for meetings,  weddings  and other events. The banquet hall provides an elegant setting for grand celebrations, and technologically advanced meeting rooms  serve  the needs of business  meetings.  

  Iconic  presence of the Taj:  

 The Taj Group, synonymous with  luxury  and hospitality, is  all  set to make its mark in Ayodhya with a premium hotel. Known for  their splendid architecture  and  excellent  service, Taj  hotels  are  famous  for creating memorable experiences for  visitors.  The introduction of  the  Taj property in Ayodhya  aims  to  enhance  the  city’s  tourism landscape, offering an exclusive  haven  for those seeking luxury and  sophistication.  

 “IHCL has signed management contracts for two new properties in Ayodhya –  the  100-room  Vivanta branded  hotel  and  the  120-room Ginger hotel – which are expected to be operational in 36 months. The  resort  with  two hotels,  spread  over  an area of ​​5  acres, is strategically located  within  comfortable driving distance from the upcoming Ayodhya International Airport and will cater to both business  and  leisure  travelers, ”  Suma Venkatesh – Executive Vice President –  ​​Real  Estate  and  Development, IHCL told  Financialexpress.com.  

  “The  travel and tourism  industry in India is generally vibrant  and the  sector  is witnessing healthy growth in  occupancy rates and  average room  rates,” she added.  This  also  benefits  hotels  located  in  places of  religious or spiritual  significance.  The infrastructure growth in Ayodhya will contribute to economic growth, job creation, and overall positive impact on associated businesses while positioning Ayodhya as a prime destination.” 

 ITC’s Commitment to Sustainable Luxury: 

 ITC Hotels, renowned for their commitment to sustainability and luxury, are also joining the Ayodhya hospitality scene. The ITC property in Ayodhya is expected to showcase the brand’s ethos of responsible luxury, incorporating eco-friendly practices without compromising on the high standards of service. This aligns with ITC’s broader vision of contributing positively to the environment and the communities in which they operate. 

  Boost to Local Economy and Employment: 

 The entry of these luxury hotel chains into Ayodhya is not only a testament to the city’s tourism potential but also a significant boost to the local economy. The hospitality sector is known for creating job opportunities across various skill sets, ranging from front-end service roles to back-end management positions. Additionally, the hotels will contribute to the local economy through collaborations with local businesses and suppliers, further enhancing Ayodhya’s overall development. 

  Beyond Radisson, Taj, and ITC, other reputed hotel chains are also eyeing Ayodhya for their expansion plans. This influx of diverse players in the luxury hospitality sector is a clear indicator of Ayodhya’s emergence as a multifaceted tourist destination. From boutique hotels to international chains, Ayodhya is set to offer a range of options for travelers seeking an elevated stay experience. 

  The decision by Radisson, Taj, and ITC to establish luxury hotels in Ayodhya reflects the city’s rising prominence as a tourist destination. This not only provides  tourists  with premium accommodation options but also contributes to the socio-economic development of Ayodhya. As the hospitality sector continues to invest in the  city’s development,  Ayodhya is poised to  not only  become  a  place of  pilgrimage  but  also  a destination that caters to a  wide variety  of tourists seeking  spiritual enrichment and    luxury experience. 

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India’s lentil production has tapered since 2017-18 when the country recorded its highest output of 1.62 million tonne. According to official data, in the 2022-23 crop year, the country’s lentil production stood at 1.56 million tonne,

India is set to become the world’s largest producer of lentil (masoor) during the 2023-24 crop year on account of higher acreage, Consumer Affairs Secretary Rohit Kumar said Friday. This is significant for India which, despite being among the world’s top five lentil growers, second only to Canada, depends on imports to meet its domestic demands.

“I was looking at the lentil numbers, masoor production numbers, and this year, the numbers are going to be at an all-time high. And I was told by experts yesterday that our lentil production may probably be the highest in the world as a country this year,” Singh said during a roadshow ahead of the Global Pulse Conference (GPC), being held in February in New Delhi.

India’s lentil production has tapered since 2017-18 when the country recorded its highest output of 1.62 million tonne. According to official data, in the 2022-23 crop year, the country’s lentil production stood at 1.56 million tonne,

With the government incentivising farmers to grow more pulses, the country has reported a higher area under lentil crop during the current year. Data from the Agriculture Ministry show 19.45 lakh hectares under lentil till January 12, 2024. This is 1.06 lakh hectare (or about 6%) higher from last year’s area of 18.39 lakh hectare, and 37% higher than the normal area (14.37 lakh hectare) under lentil.

Speaking during the roadshow, NAFED managing director Ritesh Chauhan said India was now on “the path to self-sufficiency”.

“As the Home Minister (Amit Shah) has said… if a farmer grows pulses he will have a full fertiliser factory in his field due to inherent benefits of the crop and we firmly believe in the same,” he said.

Speaking at an event on January 4, Home Minister Shah, who’s also the Union Minister for Cooperation, said India needed to be self-reliant in arhar, urad and lentils. He said the NDA government had increased the MSP of lentils to Rs 6,425 per quintal for the Rabi Marketing Season 2024-25 from the Rs 2,950 per quintal in 2014-15.

According to the data available with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the world top lentil growers in 2022 were Canada (2.3 million tonnes), India (1.26 million tonnes), Australia (0.99 million tonnes), Turkey (0.44 million tonnes), and Russia (0.26 million tonnes) during 2022.

Despite being the second largest producer of lentil, India has so far been relying on imports to meet its domestic requirements, buying mainly from Australia, Canada, Russia, Singapore, and Turkey. During the current year, it also imported some quantities of lentil from UAE, USA, Sri Lanka and Nepal.

During the April-October period of the current financial year (2023-24), India imported 9.46 lakh tonne of lentils, 159% higher than the 3.65 lakh tonne imported in the same period last year.

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Vaishnaw was in Ahmedabad to review the progress of the ongoing bullet train project among other things.

Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw addressed demands to reinstate pre-Covid fare concessions for senior citizens and media persons, stating that every train passenger already receives a 55% concession on their journey. Without giving any direct reply to questions by media persons on the restoration of concessions, Vaishnaw, during a visit to Ahmedabad to oversee the bullet train project’s progress, said that the Indian Railways is already offering 55% concession on fares to each passenger. 

Vaishnaw was in Ahmedabad to review the progress of the ongoing bullet train project among other things.

Prior to the March 2020 COVID-19 lockdown, the Railways granted a 50% fare concession to senior citizens and government-accredited journalists. Despite the full resumption of railway operations in June 2022, these concessions were not reinstated, leading to discussions and debates on various platforms, including in parliament.

Vaishnaw consistently maintained this stance in both the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha when questioned by fellow parliamentarians. During a press briefing in Ahmedabad, he clarified that if a train ticket to a destination costs Rs 100, Railway is charging only Rs 45. It is giving Rs 55 concession. In response to an RTI application, the Indian Railways disclosed earning approximately Rs 2,242 crore from around 15 crore senior citizens during the financial year 2022-23.

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