The government has almost reached 97% of its revised target for direct tax collections this fiscal year, with net collections exceeding Rs 18.90 lakh crore. 

This includes higher personal income tax collections compared to corporation tax, with refunds of around Rs 3.37 lakh crore issued so far.

 Before refunds, the gross direct tax collections amounted to Rs 22.27 lakh crore, showing an 18.74% growth from the previous year. The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) confirmed these figures for the financial year 2023-24.

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The biscuit, snack, and beverage industry is anticipating a surge in sales during April-May as the country gears up for elections. The Election Commission of India has announced the schedule for the upcoming general elections, starting on April 19 and concluding on June 1, with the results being declared on June 4.

Food and beverage companies are expecting a growth of 10-15% in sales compared to last year during the election period. The increase in out-of-home consumption is predicted as political campaigning intensifies, leading to more people attending rallies, events, and roadshows. Companies are already increasing their stock levels in anticipation of higher demand, with smaller and larger packs being made available at retail outlets.

Campaigning has begun in various states, and the expectation is for more activity as the election dates draw near. The overlap of the elections with the summer and holiday season is also seen as a boost for out-of-home consumption, especially in the beverage sector. With a significant increase in the number of eligible voters compared to the last elections, companies are gearing up for a busy and potentially profitable period.

Jayen Mehta of GCMMF believes that the elections, alongside the summer season, will drive greater movement of people and subsequently increase beverage consumption. Companies like Balaji Wafers are already strategizing to capitalize on this opportunity by increasing their presence in retail outlets and setting up stalls near rally sites to attract consumers.

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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has suggested ending negative interest rates, potentially leading to Japan’s first interest rate hike in 17 years, while maintaining rates close to zero due to a fragile economic recovery. 

This move would conclude a period where policymakers supported growth using unconventional monetary tools. 

While the symbolic significance of this hike is significant, the actual impact on the economy is expected to be minimal in terms of funding costs and mortgage rates. 

Additionally, the Bank of Japan will decrease the amount of bonds it purchases, particularly reducing the top range for 5-10 year JGBs and 3-5 year bonds, but will continue bond buying operations to sustain its ultra-low rate policy.

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Air India Express is planning to significantly expand its operations during the upcoming summer schedule, aiming to offer over 360 daily flights. 

This will include a 25% increase in domestic flights and a rise of more than 20% in international services, resulting in an additional 55 domestic and 19 international flights.

 The airline, in the process of merging with AIX Connect, is looking to enhance its global connectivity and is set to increase frequencies to various destinations.

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Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia economist, Chetan Ahya, stated that India is not expected to achieve the high economic growth rates of 8%-10% that China has seen over the long term. Instead, India’s economy is likely to grow steadily at 6.5%-7%, and it is not poised to replace China as a global manufacturing hub. 

This assessment aligns with India’s current challenges of insufficient infrastructure and a workforce with low skills according to Ahya. Despite these constraints, 

Morgan Stanley remains hopeful about India’s prospects, comparing the current economic expansion to the boom seen in the mid-2000s. The investment bank cited a report indicating that India’s growth trajectory now resembles that of 2003-07, with rising investments playing a key role in driving growth. 

The report highlights a shift towards more capex as a growth driver, noting that public capex has been leading the way due to challenges faced by the corporate sector in recent years.

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According to Morgan Stanley, India’s economic growth is reminiscent of the period from 2003 to 2007, with growth averaging over 8 percent.

 They noted that after a period of declining investment to GDP over the past decade, capital expenditure (capex) has become a significant driver of growth in India. 

This current expansion closely mirrors the one from 2003-2007, with the investment-to-GDP ratio on the rise. The report also highlights that private capex is now starting to catch up with public capex, leading to an increase in the investment-to-GDP ratio. 

Overall, Morgan Stanley predicts that this trend will continue with investment expected to rise further in the coming years.

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