Sectors such as BPO, education,  retail  and healthcare  showed  cautious hiring  activity,  with year-on-year declines of 17%, 11%,  11%  and  10% respectively.  

  Recruitment of office workers  in India  saw  a significant  decline of 16%  in December compared to the same  month last  year.  A cautious  hiring  sentiment prevails  across various sectors, including IT, BPO, education,  retail  and healthcare,  according to  a report  released  on Tuesday.  Here’s the industry  analysis: 

  The  IT  industry’s struggles continue:  

 According to  Naukri JobSpeak Index, the IT sector  continues  to face  many  challenges, contributing to  a 16% decrease in the  overall  index.  The sector  saw  a  significant 21% increase  in hiring compared to December 2022 and a  4% decrease  compared to November 2023. Despite the  general  caution in the IT industry,  some positions,  including full-stack data  scientists,  IT infrastructure  engineers,  and automation  engineers, are still seeing quite good  hiring  activity.  

  Growth in the hospitality sector:  

 The hospitality sector continued its growth momentum,  seeing  a 4% increase in  recruitment  compared to December last year. The highest  employment  growth in this sector was  recorded  in Mumbai and Delhi-NCR. 

  Be cautious  in  many areas:  

 Sectors such as BPO, education,  retail  and healthcare  showed  cautious hiring  activity,  with year-on-year declines of 17%, 11%,  11%  and  10% respectively.  

 Stability  of  the oil and gas  industry: 

 Although the oil and gas industry  did not  see significant  growth in new  jobs  in December 2023, it  remained on par with  the same month  last year. The rise of  the  pharmaceutical industry:  

 The  pharmaceutical industry  saw a 2% increase in hiring in December 2023 compared to the corresponding month  of  2022, with maximum growth in new job  openings  in Ahmedabad,  Vadodara  and Mumbai. 

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Per the CRISIL analysis, the first advance estimates bake in a slowdown in the second half relative to the first half of this fiscal. The latter half slowdown has been driven by weaker private consumption, especially rural demand, and the bite of rising interest rates.

While India’s real GDP growth in 2023-24 is estimated to 7.3 per cent, in comparison to 7.2 per cent a year ago, according to the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), CRISIL expects the pace of India’s economic growth in the next fiscal to slow down as high interest rates and slowing global growth bite.

Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL Ltd, said, “Growth estimates for this fiscal have surpassed our expectations. High frequency indicators such as the S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index show activity remaining in the expansion zone in the third quarter for both manufacturing and services. Even as the agricultural economy slowed sharply this year following a weak monsoon, the surge in the non-agricultural economy has more than offset it.” Weak agri growth (1.8 per cent vs 4.0 per cent previous fiscal) was seen as the result of poor kharif output and onging risks to rabi crops. Kharif output — impacted by the uneven monsoon — is estimated to be 4.6 per cent lower on-year. Rabi sowing has also slowed as per latest data available, as water reservoir levels are lower on-year.

He further stated that the government-driven investment push, along with easing input cost pressures for industry, has also played a major role in shoring up growth. However, services have been slowing with waning pent-up demand (post pandemic). The exception has been financial, real estate and professional services, which has powered ahead on the back of robust growth in banking and real estate.

Nevertheless, per the CRISIL analysis, the first advance estimates bake in a slowdown in the second half relative to the first half of this fiscal. The latter half slowdown has been driven by weaker private consumption, especially rural demand, and the bite of rising interest rates. 

The slowdown is expected to continue in the next fiscal. But why?

First and foremost is the slowing global growth will have an impact on India’s economic growth the next year. S&P Global expects global growth to slow to 2.8 per cent in calendar year 2024 from 3.3 per cent previous year. The United States (US), which beat expectations last year, is expected to slow to 1.5 per cent (vs 2.4 per cent), as monetary policy transmission picks up. The slowing growth in the US will weigh on India’s growth, with the country being the largest export market for India.

Next, the rising interest rates will also have an impact on growth. Financial conditions, CRISIL said, are expected to be less supportive for domestic demand next year. The transmission of past rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India is still in playing out, which suggests a further rise in lending rates. The central bank’s recent regulatory measures of increasing risk weights on consumer credit exposures of banks and NBFCs will further affect credit growth into next year. 

According to the NSO data, nominal GDP is estimated to slow to 8.9 per cent this fiscal compared with 16.1 per cent previous year. This is lower than 10.5 per cent estimated during Budget 2023. Moderation in real GDP growth, coupled with a sharp slide in GDP deflator (1.4 per cent on-year this fiscal versus 8.2 per cent previous year) are behind the slowdown in nominal GDP. WPI inflation has declined significantly this fiscal (-1.3 per cent in April-November 2023), which drove the fall in GDP deflator.

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  According  to  a  Times of India report citing data  from  the  Confederation of  Indian  Alcoholic Beverages Companies  (CIABC), India’s single malt sales have surpassed those of global brands by 2023. 

 Of the total sales of  675,000  cases of single  malt  in India in 2023, around  345,000 cases  were retailed by domestic  producers,  while the remaining  330,000 cases  were  retailed  by  Scots  and  other countries.  

 Some of  India’s largest single malt  brands  include  Amrut, Paul John,  Indri  and  Gianchand,  among  many  others.  Local  brands  don’t come  cheap: Indri starts at $37 a bottle  (about  ₹3,000), Amrut $42  (about ₹3,500)  and Rampur $66  (about  ₹5,400)  at stores  near New Delhi.  By  comparison, Pernod’s Glenlivet retails from $40  (about  ₹3,200) to $118  (about $9,800),  depending on age.

 South Seas  launches  premium single malt  product line

 Unlike many Asian countries where beer dominates alcohol sales, India is  primarily  a  whiskey drinking  nation.

  Responding  to the  Indian drinks  trend, global brands that have  focused  on  old Scottish  single malts  are  turning  to Indian  whiskey  to  capitalize on  the boom in one of the  major whiskey markets best of the world.  

  India  loves whiskey  among  the  top 10  countries  

 Established global brands such as Glenlivet, made by France’s Pernod Ricard, and Talisker by Britain’s  Diageo, are competing  for shelf space with local rivals Indri,  Amrut  and Radico Khaitan’s Rampur. The craze for  “desi”  brands has prompted Diageo and Pernod  Ricard  to join local brands.  

 Whyte & Mackay single malt  whiskey  finds  a  key  market  in India 

 In 2022, Diageo, Pernod’s  biggest rival,  launched  India’s  first  single malt, Godawan  –  named after  an  endangered  large  Indian bird  – which is currently on sale.  in five foreign markets, including the United States. While Pernod launched Longitude 77 last year. 

  Diageo India launches  Godawan  craft whiskey  

  According to CIABC data, local  single malts  account for  53% of total sales  by 2023.  

  According to data from drinks market analysis IWSR,  Indian single  malt grew  144% in  2021-2022, outpacing Scotch’s  32%  growth. He predicts that, over  the period  to  2027,  India’s malt  consumption  will  grow 13%  per year,  compared  with 8% for scotch.

 For more  information,  visit at https://happenrecently.com/zepto/?amp=1

  Maldives  Tourism Industry  Association  (MATI) has  supported  India and  “strongly condemned”  the  ministers’  derogatory remarks  on  Prime Minister  Modi’s  message  on Lakshadweep. A  major controversy broke out  last week  when the Deputy Chief Minister of  Maldives  along with other cabinet members and government  officials  made  derogatory  and  unreliable  references  about Prime Minister Modi’s visit  to  Lakshadweep.  

 Here are 10  things  you need to know 

 1. “The Maldives  Tourism Industry  Association  (MATI) strongly condemns the  offensive  comments made by some Deputy Ministers on social media platforms,  against  the Prime Minister of India,  Mr.  Narendra  Modi,  as well as the  Indian  people  Degree,”  the official  said. speak. » said the press release published  on  January  8.  

 2. Calling India  one of  its closest allies, MATI  said:  “India is one of our closest  neighbors  and allies. India has always been a first responder to various crises throughout  its  history and we are  extremely  grateful  for  the close relationship that the  government and  people of India have  had  with  us.  

 3.  “India is  also  a consistent and significant contributor to the  Maldives tourism industry. One  contributor  contributed  greatly  to  our recovery efforts during  the COVID-19 pandemic, shortly  after  our  borders reopened.  Since then, India  continues  to  be  one of the  major  markets  of  the Maldives.  We sincerely hope  that the close relationship between our two  countries will continue  for  many  generations to come and  we  will therefore  refrain from  any  actions or  words  that may have  a  negative impact on  the relationship  our  good,”  the  MATI  statement  said.  

 4. On January 2,  Prime Minister  Modi visited the Union Territory and shared  a few  pictures, including an  “exciting experience” where he tried  his hand at  snorkeling.  

 5. In a series of posts  out there,  Lakshadweep  must  be on your  list.  

 6. In a  now-deleted post, Maldives  Deputy Minister of Youth  Empowerment Shiuna  made a mocking and disrespectful  remark towards Prime Minister  Modi. 

 7. Zahid Rameez,  a member of the Progressive Party  in the  Maldives  Senate,  reportedly  criticized  India, saying  “the idea  of  ​​competing  with us is  unrealistic”.  He said his  “sentiments are  expressed in the context of growing Indian influence  in”  Maldives political affairs. Abdulla Mahzoom Majid said he wished  India tourism a  success  but added that  “explicitly targeting  the Maldives  is not diplomatic”.  

 8. According to Maldivian  media, Deputy Ministers of Youth,  Malsha Shareef, Mariyam Shiuna and Abdulla Mahzoom  Majid,  have been suspended  due to  their  duties.  Earlier on Sunday, the  Maldives  government also distanced itself from Minister Mariyam Shiuna’s derogatory remarks, saying her  views do  not reflect  those of  the  government.  

 9. Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu  comes to China  to strengthen bilateral  relations  with Beijing. Muizzu, who is  considered “pro-China”,  skipped  his  visit to India and  went to  China, unlike his predecessors. On Monday,  Chinese  state media Global Times, in an editorial, mentioned Muizzu’s visit to the East Asian  country  and referred to  the  diplomatic  dispute between India and  Maldives, and called for  calls for  an  “open”  approach  in considering  South Asian issues.

  10.  Maldives MP  Mickail  Naseem  called on the  National Assembly  to summon the  Foreign Minister over  the  Maldivian government’s  inaction and lack of  urgency.  Former Maldives  Defense  Minister Mariya Ahmed Didi also said that  insulting  comments  about Prime Minister  Modi  showed  the  “myopia”  of the Maldives government, adding that India  is  a reliable ally, providing  support. aid  in  many  sectors, including  defence, while criticizing  any  efforts  to  weaken  the  Maldivian government. long-term  relationship. 

  Meanwhile,  Maldives is India’s  main  maritime  neighbor  in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and  has  a special place in its initiatives  such as SAGAR  (Security and Growth for  All).  in the Region) and the  Modi government’s Neighborhood  First  Policy. In particular, thousands  of Indians  have visited the  Maldives in  recent  years. Indians top Maldives’ tourist arrival figures, with more than 2 lakh of them visiting it every year after the COVID-19 pandemic, news agency PTI reported. Traders’ body Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) called upon domestic traders and exporters to refrain from conducting business dealings with the island nation, PTI reported. EaseMyTrip also suspended all flight bookings to the island nation on its website “in solidarity” with India. 

  For more information visit at https://happenrecently.com/zepto/?amp=1

 Anirudh Garg, Partner and Fund Manager at INVAsset, PMS, believes  that  Budget 2024  may  not bring  significant  changes  to  the stock market and investors, but any  significant announcement  will  recorded  and considered for  its  potential impact. In an interview with Mint, Garg said  this year’s  market  drivers appear  to be  mainly focused on  political events and economic  policy.  Edited  excerpt:  

 What are your expectations  for  the  2024 budget? Will  it  be a pro-growth or  populist budget ahead of the  2024 general election? Which  budget announcements  will  be important from  a market perspective? Expectations  for the  2024  budget appear  to  hinge on  the belief that it  will not have a significant impact given  its proximity to  an  election year.  

 Instead, the focus is on  analysis of  the  February  2023 budget,  which  prioritizes  capital expenditure (capex) over popular measures  aimed at attracting  voters.  

 Last year’s  budget  allocated  19.5%  of  spending to capital expenditure,  the highest in two decades,  demonstrating  the government’s long-term planning approach. 

  This strategy is  considered  crucial  to  a  country’s  prosperity, as capital investments  generate returns over longer periods of time, unlike short-term, immediate  benefits  from revenue  spending.  

 The argument  goes  that investing in long-term assets,  just  like a family  invests  in a business for future income, is  essential  for a developing  country  like India.  The government’s clear focus on  improving  infrastructure and sectors  such as  roads, railways,  defense  and airports  are  seen as vital  to  India’s growth from  two trillion to  ten  trillion dollars.  

 While the current budget  may  not bring  significant  changes  to  the stock market and investors, any important announcements will still be noted and considered  based on  their potential impact. 

  Most  of  the  active products have been marketed.  What  is  the next  trigger  for the market?  Market  triggers  this year  appear  to be  mainly focused on  political events and economic  policy. First,  the  2024  general elections  and the  current government’s  expected victories  in key Indian states  will  be  priced in  the market.  

 However, the actual  result,  especially the majority  that the  BJP  can  secure  victory,  is  still  expected  to  matter to markets.  

 Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s stance on inflation and interest rates is  considered  a  deciding factor.  

 If the Fed continues to manage inflation effectively, interest rate adjustments may not  have a major  impact  on  the  market.  Conversely, any change in this  position can act  as a trigger.  The US  election scheduled for  later  this  year  is  also expected to  play an important role.

  As  the  political  landscape evolves, the political  changes and economic directives that  accompany a  new  administration  can  cause  market volatility. 

  The advice  emphasizes the  understanding that markets are forward-looking and tend to price in  response to  anticipated outcomes rather than  reacting  to current events.

  Therefore,  the market may  perform better in anticipation of a positive  event  and  may react  less  when that  event occurs. 

  Investors are  advised not to be  swayed by market  price increases  following positive developments and  should  focus on opportunities during  times  of uncertainty or volatility.  The  recommended  strategy  is to  “buy  on  dips,” that is, buy  when prices are low in anticipation of future  profits.  

 This year is expected to be characterized by high volatility due to several  key upcoming events,  suggesting a cautious and strategic  investment approach.  

 Do you  think  the market  will have  similar returns  to  last year?  In 2023,  Nifty 50 witnessed  impressive growth of over  20%, proving  its resilience and potential. Over the past three,  four  and five years, our compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has consistently exceeded  15%.  However,  it is  essential to  acknowledge  that the  Nifty’s long-term  historical  average has  typically  been  between 11  and 13%.  

  Assessing  current market conditions, we believe that the  market is  entering  a high price zone.  This doesn’t  mean  opportunities  to generate  alpha will disappear, but  they  may not reach the  levels  seen  in 2023. 

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