According to Fitch,  India’s expected labor  supply growth is also lower  than in 2019, due  to  expected negative growth in the  labor force  participation rate.  

 Fitch Ratings has increased  India’s  medium-term growth rate by 0.7 percentage  points  (PP) to  6.2% “taking into account the  improvement in  employment rate and  working-age population  forecast” slight increase.  

 According to Fitch,  India’s expected labor  supply growth is also lower  than in 2019, due  to  expected negative growth in the  labor force  participation rate. “While the  activity  rate has recovered from  the crisis caused by the pandemic,  it remains significantly  lower than  levels recorded in the early 2000s,  in part because of women’s  employment  rates still  very low,”  he declared  in  the  latest  report on the  Global Economic Outlook (GEO)  of 10  emerging  countries. economical  (EM10) 

  Fitch’s forecast of  unweighted average potential growth for  emerging countries at 10  is unchanged from  the  previous assessment (published in July  2021),  at  3%.

  “But this  hides  big changes at the  country level. We have cut Russia and China’s projections by 0.8pp and 0.7pp, respectively, and those of Korea and South Africa by 0.2pp,” it said.  

 “By contrast, we have increased Mexico and Poland’s potential growth estimates by 0.6pp and 0.4pp, respectively. We have increased India’s estimate by 0.7pp while those of Brazil, Turkiye and Indonesia are all now higher by 0.2pp,” Fitch said.  

 “But it also highlights the legacy of economic disruptions from the pandemic. GDP fell in all the EM10 except China and Turkiye in 2020, with very steep declines in India, Mexico and South Africa. Even after subsequent recoveries, GDP in 2022  remains  generally  much lower than would be  implied by extrapolating  pre-pandemic  trends,  especially  in India, Indonesia and Mexico,” Fitch said.  know.  

 Fitch Ratings  forecasts EM10’s  medium-term  growth  potential  of 4.0%  on a  weighted average  GDP  basis. This is a downward revision from  4.3%  in our previous assessment in July 2021,  due to  a  0.7 percentage point decrease in favor of  China. “Our  EM10  unweighted average  potential growth  forecast  remains  at 3%,  unchanged from our previous assessment in July 2021,”  the statement  said. 

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