The  Indian economy showed resilience in 2023 with strong GDP growth and  strong  GST  collections,  but inflation remained above the RBI target. 

  The  Indian economy  has shown  remarkable resilience in 2023 with strong GDP growth and  strong  GST  collections.  However, inflation  remains higher than  the Reserve Bank of  India’s (RBI) target of 4%.  

 India’s retail inflation, or  inflation based on the  consumer price index  (CPI),  was  4.87%  in October,  up  from  5.02%  in September and  6.83%  in August. However, it rebounded in November  and hit  a three-month high of  5.5%.  

 In its  latest  policy  meeting,  the RBI kept  its  inflation forecast unchanged as it  forecast inflation based on the  Consumer Price Index  (CPI)  or retail  inflation  at  5.4%  for FY24, with  a third quarter forecast of  5.6  percent  and  a fourth quarter forecast of  5.2  percent. hundred.  CPI inflation  in the first quarter of FY25  is  forecast  at 5.2 per cent,  in the second quarter  at 4 per cent and  in the third quarter  at 4.7 per cent.  

 On the other hand, the RBI  has  raised its real GDP growth  forecast  for FY24 to  7%,  from  6.5% previously,  with Q3 GDP at  6.5% (vs. previous estimate  of  6%. )  and  fourth quarter  GDP  was 6%. (compared to previous estimate  of  6%).  The  previous estimate was 5.7%). 

RBI’s  real GDP growth  forecast for the first quarter  of  FY25  is  6.7 per cent, for  the second quarter of FY25 it  is  6.5 per cent and for  the third quarter FY25 it  is  6.4 per cent.

 Mint  spoke  to several experts to gather their  views  on  India’s inflation and economic growth  trajectory  in 2024. Here’s what they said: 

 Dr. Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings 

  India’s annual  retail price inflation  rose from  4.87%  in October to  5.55%  in November 2023.  Agriculture  production  hit by  five-year low monsoon in 2023  by ‘El Niño. As a result,  the MPC will continue to be wary of inflation  as  the  macroeconomic outlook is characterized  by volatile and  unstable  food prices. 

  India’s  GDP  in fiscal 2024  is  expected  to grow by  6.7%.  Going forward, India  will  emerge stronger  thanks to key transformation factors, namely the consumption boom, the rise  of  the  middle class and  the  green transition (demand side) and  economic benefits. i.e. demographics, better  access to finance and  increased  physical and digital infrastructure (supply side). In  short,  India is in  an ideal situation. 

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