India will remain lower middle economy by 2047  if growth rate is not over 6%: Raghuram Rajan 

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Speaking at a programme in Hyderabad, the economist said if the country does not grow faster, it will grow older (demographically) before it gets richer, which means there is the burden of an aging population to deal with also at that point. 

  Speaking at a programme in Hyderabad, the economist said if the country does not grow faster, it will grow older (demographically) before it gets richer, which means there is the burden of an aging population to deal with also at that point.  

 Former Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said India will still remain a lower middle country if the growth rate remains at 6 per cent annually without any rise in population by 2047 (Amrit Kaal) and will be reaching the end of the demographic dividend by then. 

  Speaking at a programme organised by Manthan in Hyderabad, the economist said if the country does not grow faster, it will grow older (demographically) before it gets richer, which means there is the burden of an aging population to deal with also at that point. 

  “If you do the math, at 6 per cent a year, you double every 12 years, and therefore in 24 years, we’ll be four times our per capita income. Today,  as you know,  the average income per capita in India  is just  under 2,500 USD/person. multiplied  by four, we get $10,000 per  person.

So  if you do the math, at our current  growth rate,  you know,  as  strong as  the peak  in the G20,  we’re not becoming  rich but we  will still be in the  lower middle income  level until  2047,” he said.  

 “In other words, we will  begin  the  aging  process  at some point  during this time period,  which  raises  the alarming question  that  if we  don’t  grow faster, we will grow  old. Go  before we  get  rich, which means we all  will  have  to suffer.” We will also have to deal with  an aging population  at  this time,”  he  said.

 According to him, the current  growth  rate  is not enough to  recruit  all  participants in  the  job market  and  not enough  to  enrich  the country  before it  ages.  

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